Dealing with a Different Desert: Vulnerability and Adaptation to Climate Change in the Thar

Although climate change is occurring on a global scale, its most acute effects are felt locally. Subsistence farmers in the developing world are especially vulnerable, because not only are they exposed to the largest geophysical and ecological changes but also they face large social barriers, often related to poverty, that prevent them from adapting to those changes. Adaptations to climate change can take many forms, and while some involve new technologies, many derive from traditional practices that have been practiced for hundreds of years.

In India, as in most parts of the world, climate change is not a concern for the distant future. It is already happening. The Indian climate has gotten hotter over the past several decades, and it is expected to keep getting hotter in the coming years. Yearly rainfall amount is expected to increase in most parts of India but not arid regions like western Rajasthan. Rainfall is also expected to become more variable and more intense, with a higher frequency of extremes. The Thar Desert, like the rest of India, has seen a strong trend of warming in the recent past, but the trends for rainfall are less clear. Rainfall in the region has been highly variable for as long as it has been recorded. Predictions are mixed as to how rainfall will change in the future, but whatever happens, conditions are likely to become even more adverse than they are now.

In addition to rainfall variability, the Thar also faces severe problems of overpopulation and overexploitation of groundwater, both of which place stress on already scarce resources. Changes in the climate will exacerbate these problems, and these exacerbating effects are likely be more damaging in the long term than the changes themselves.

The results of focus groups and surveys in Jodhpur district provide insight into villagers’ understanding of climate change, their perceptions of past change, their expectations for future change and their practices related to water, agriculture, livestock, ecosystems, employment, and drought. The surveys confirm that climate change will exacerbate existing problems, not only with regard to tube well irrigation but also with regard to debt. On the bright side, villagers currently implement many traditional practices that make them resilient to climate variability. By continuing and improving these practices, they can adapt to future changes. However, the benefits of such practices are limited, and villagers will also need to seek alternatives to agriculture as a source of livelihood.

Rural communities in the Thar can become more resilient to climate change by continuing and improving practices of rainwater harvesting, implementing principles of agro-ecology, engaging in responsible animal husbandry, conserving ecosystems, receiving assistance with loans, diversifying income sources, keeping the population within reasonable limits, learning about what is expected to happen with the climate and how to respond, and benefitting from research and support on the part of organizations such as GRAVIS.